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Results

Theory of change

One diagram. How a single request becomes a durable change in a National Society, and how that aggregates across the network.

The Centre's theory of change Inputs are core funding, around sixteen specialists in five regions, a catalogue of 124 services and a quality assurance panel. They support four activities: diagnosis, building controls and policy, scaling systems, and sustaining through follow-up and peer networks. Those produce outputs: assessments and plans of action, adopted policies, trained and certified staff, and working systems. Outputs lead to outcomes: month-end closes on schedule, audit findings clear, and audited statements are published. The long-term impact is that more resources reach local humanitarian work because National Society finances are managed with integrity. Inputs Core funding and strategic member contributions ~16 specialists across five regions, scaling to ~24 124 services, four tiers, five outcome areas A quality assurance panel applying IFRS, ISA and COSO A National Society request and its formal consent Activities Diagnose Assessment, gap register, plan Build Policies, controls, training Scale Systems, analytics, surge Sustain Follow-up, coaching, network Outputs A scored baseline and a plan of action the board approves Adopted policies and a documented control set Trained and certified staff, mentored for three months A working finance system and reporting on real data Peer-reviewed deliverables and a close-out report Outcomes Month-end closes on schedule, every month Audit findings clear and do not recur Audited statements are published openly Donors fund directly, with less earmarking and scrutiny Practices hold three to six months after the Centre exits Impact More resources reach local humanitarian work The Centre's theory of change. The same chain as described above, stacked in one column. Inputs Core funding and strategic member contributions ~16 specialists across five regions, scaling to ~24 124 services, four tiers, five outcome areas A quality assurance panel applying IFRS, ISA and COSO A National Society request and its formal consent Activities Diagnose Assessment, gap register, plan Build Policies, controls, training Scale Systems, analytics, surge Sustain Follow-up, coaching, network Outputs A scored baseline and a plan of action the board approves Adopted policies and a documented control set Trained and certified staff, mentored for three months A working finance system and reporting on real data Peer-reviewed deliverables and a close-out report Outcomes Month-end closes on schedule, every month Audit findings clear and do not recur Audited statements are published openly Donors fund directly, with less earmarking and scrutiny Practices hold three to six months after the Centre exits Impact More resources reach local humanitarian work
Inputs support activities, activities produce outputs, outputs lead to outcomes, and the outcomes together produce the impact: more resources reach local humanitarian work, because National Society finances are managed with integrity and trust is what sustains funding.

The chain in words

A donor's willingness to fund a National Society directly, without earmarking every line and auditing every transaction, rests on a judgement about whether that Society can account for money. Where the judgement is negative, funds route around the Society through intermediaries, and less reaches local work.

The Centre's chain starts from that. Core funding and specialist capacity buy activity: diagnosis, controls, systems, follow-up. Activity produces outputs a Society owns, being a plan its board approved, policies it adopted, staff it certified, and a system it runs.

Outputs become outcomes only when they hold. A close that lands on schedule for one month is an output; a close that lands every month for a year is an outcome. That is why the Sustain tier exists and why follow-up at three and six months is built into the model rather than sold separately.

The impact statement is about resources reaching local work, not about the Centre. If audited statements go up and funds still route around the Society, the chain has not worked.

Measurement

Each link maps to published indicators on the global KPI page, with the definition and calculation for each. Indicators marked SivSa feed the results framework of SivSa, the Norwegian Red Cross programme funded by Norad, the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation.

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